Iamdanno@lemmynsfw.comtoShowerthoughts@lemmy.world•The Gambler's Fallacy makes sense logically, but it feels so wrong emotionally.English
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9 months agoThere are 2 choices so they are equally likely
There are 2 choices so they are equally likely
There are only two options at that point. It MUST be 50-50.
The host’s intentions are irrelevant. Numerically, there are only two choices. That makes it fifty-fifty.
Now you have 2 choices: the door you chose, or the only other door left. One has a goat and one has a car. That’s fifty-fifty.
In your explanation, the door originally had a 1% chance, but after showing 98 goats, it has a 50% chance.
After you find out there’s a goat behind door #2, you have a 50% chance whether you stay on 1 or move to three. There are only two possible outcomes at that point (car or goat), so either way it’s a coin flip.
Heyday is what you mean, I think.