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Cake day: June 15th, 2023

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  • I don’t think Likud and IDF leaders care too much about the wellbeing of the hostages, and their behavior pretty clearly reflects that.

    They don’t, but the Israeli public does. This will matter if a Gaza remains after the war ends.

    So if Hamas wants to maximize their bargaining power they should be seeking to undermine the public narratives around the necessity of the war.

    Honestly, nobody who doesn’t already support Palestine will change their position because they released the 30 or so hostages that are still alive. It’ll just be called a move for clout, which won’t be too far from the truth. Also during post-war negotiation what’s important won’t be clout with the international community; that’s more of a long-term thing. What they will need then is negotiating power with Israel. Maybe it’ll be different if the international community actually takes an active role in negotiations, but we both know that’s not happening.







  • I don’t think anyone is trying to imply that all Israelis support what their government is doing, but 80% (including 88% of Israeli Jews, which are the main demographic we’re looking at here) is a very damning number. Related: I don’t have the total number for this one, but the number of Israeli Jews who believe Israel is using too little or an appropriate amount of firepower is 94%. Again not all of them, but these are pretty damning numbers and dispel the idea that there’s real domestic opposition to what’s going on in Gaza.


  • Considering that most of the casualties were civilian

    66%, even including counting crossfire, the involvement of other less trained forces (including random Gazans who happened to enter through the hole Hamas opened) and Israeli friendly fire (the latter is not insignificant; there were multiple proven cases of Israel choosing to kill Hamas fighters along with hostages instead of letting them return to Gaza). Not denying the atrocities that Hamas actually committed, but given these factors 66% isn’t indicative of any deliberate targeting.

    It is reqlly hard to believe any Hamas leader in that regard, once you see who was killed and how.

    What I’m trying to say is: Hamas’s official stance is that Israeli civilians aren’t valid targets. If they do consider all Israeli civilians targets (which considering how pragmatic Hamas generally is as an organization would make absolutely no sense) they’re definitely not saying it out loud. They said they’ll repeat 7/10 against Israel, the political entity, not that they’d keep killing civilians, is what I’m saying.