Probably 2 to 5 years. Lemmy kinda just works and is usable right now. To become better than Reddit the experience needs to be seamless.

I would say reddit’s golden years were around 2012. Since it started around 2005 that gave it 7 years to get as good as it was in 2012. If Lemmy follows the same formula, it may take about the same amount of time, but reddit saw exponential growth when Dig shot itself in the foot, much like reddit is currently doing, so it’s possible we may get a jump start. Who’s to say really?